Source: China Grain Network
Last week, the overall domestic oil market showed a concussive upward trend. Among them, soybean oil plays a leading role.JojoarcadegameLeading palm oil and rapeseed oil to take off, the main soybean oil contract 2409 hit 8000 points on Friday night. At present, the domestic futures price deviates from the spot fundamentals, and the domestic oil spot price is more passive. Domestic oil may still be easy to rise but difficult to fall this week.
The spot market reference price of soybean oil, as of noon on May 17, the average spot price of first-class soybean oil from major domestic coastal manufacturers is about 8000 yuan / ton. among them, about 7840 yuan / ton in Dalian area, 7980 yuan / ton in Tianjin area, 7980 yuan / ton in Rizhao area, 8060 yuan / ton in Zhangjiagang area, 8040 yuan / ton in Dongguan area and 8060 yuan / ton in Fangchenggang area.
South American soybeans make waves again
After May Day, the main contract of American beans stood firm at 1200 cents, mainly due to the bad weather of South American soybeans and the decline in total soybean production. The sowing progress of Meidou's new crop is slow. As of May 12, 35% of soybeans in the United States had completed sowing, compared with 25% a week ago, and 45% in the same period last year, with a five-year average progress of 34%. The emergence rate was 16%, compared with 9% a week ago and 17% in the same period last year, with an average progress of 10% in five years. At the same time, the weekly sales report of American beans this week is bearish, but South American soybean production may be reduced to support market prices. Last week, in Brazil's flood-ravaged state of Rio Grande do Sul, the harvest of grains such as soybeans, corn and rice was slow as persistent rainfall and stubbornly high water levels failed to subside, disrupting field operations. The state's soyabean harvest rate was 85 per cent, up from 78 per cent the previous week, despite still unfavourable weather conditions and severe damage to crops, the state's crop agency Emater said on Thursday. The state's soybean production is the last big unknown for Brazil's 24-year soybean production in 2023. At the same time, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina on Thursday lowered its soybean production forecast for 2023 to 50.5 million tons for 24 years. Due to the hot and dry weather in the north in March, the previous estimate was 51 million tons, and there was uncertainty about soybean production in South America. Therefore, we will continue to pay attention to the soybean production in South America, as well as the planting progress of new crops of American beans and weather changes.
The future price of palm oil in the producing area is stronger.
Last week, the price of horse brown still rose mainly, mainly driven by a rise in the outer disk. Palm oil in the producing area has entered the cycle of increasing production, while exports are weak. Malaysia exported 574760 tons of palm oil products from May 1 to 15, 2024, down 17 percent from 697449 tons in the same period in April, according to data released by independent inspection company AmSpec Agri on Wednesday.Jojoarcadegame.6%. According to data released by Intertek Testing Services (ITS) on Wednesday, Malaysia exported 600777 tons of palm oil products from May 1 to 15, down 5 percent from 633680 tons in the same period last month.Jojoarcadegame.2%. Malaysia exported 426947 tons of palm oil products from May 1 to 15, according to data released Thursday by SGS, a shipping inspection agency. At the same time, higher crude oil led to stronger palm oil as economic data from China and the United States, the world's two largest oil consumers, boosted hopes for demand growth.
The base difference of oil and fat is lower.
Last week, the domestic oil base fell endlessly, mainly due to poor terminal consumption, futures prices fluctuated in a wide range, the main body is mainly wait-and-see, and the spot supply of beans, brown and vegetables gradually turned loose. Up to now, the one-bean basis difference in Northeast China is between 0.9 and 80, and the actual transaction has been negative basis. The base difference of traders in North China is 09-120-130, that of factories in Shandong is 09-120-160, and that of mainstream in South China is 09-180-200. In terms of palm oil, the palm oil base spread continued to decline, mainly due to improved import profits and an increase in ship purchases. Traders in North China 24 degrees brown oil 090000, quotations are chaotic, multi-bargaining transactions, East China base difference is 09000,250, South China 24 degrees base difference is mostly between 09plus 300. In terms of rapeseed oil, the rapeseed oil base difference is stable, local transactions are general, and the overall inventory is still adequate relative to other varieties. At present, the base difference of third-grade rapeseed oil in Sichuan-Chongqing region is 09-170-200, that in East China is 09-170-200, and that in South China is 09-170-200.JojoarcadegameChina has enough rapeseed to buy ships, and the pattern of loose supply of rapeseed oil will not change for the time being.
Future trend analysis, domestic oil spot fundamentals still show a trend of oversupply. With a large number of soybeans arriving in Hong Kong from May to July, the opening rate of factories has increased steadily, and the accumulation of soybean oil does not rule out the possibility that the basis will continue to decline with the rise of futures prices. At the same time, palm oil is arriving in Hong Kong one after another, and the price difference of soybean palm returns to rationality. Except for North China, the spot price of palm oil in other areas is lower than that of soybean oil. The price of rapeseed oil is high, the transaction is mostly rigid demand, and there are plenty of rapeseed to buy ships in our country. In the current market, it is recommended that the futures price callback to supplement the rigid demand. The current market capital market, the market volatility, it is recommended to wait and see carefully.
