Core point of view: snacks: outstanding performanceAmericanroulettemachineThe boom continued. Snacks in 2023 ushered in a two-way increase in income and profits, among which the net interest rate of 24Q1 increased significantly under the contribution of the Spring Festival peak season. On the revenue side, the new channel dividend lays a foundation for the high prosperity of the snack sector in the past two years, and the changing rhythm of snack companies determines the inflection point of their performance; the income performance of manufacturing companies is better; and channel companies are reborn under the trend of sizing up the situation. The profit end, the cost differentiation, the promotion policy under the terminal demand stratification is different, the industry competition intensifies reduces this benefit to become the consensus. On the whole, the profit elasticity of Weilong delicious food, Ganyuan food and Yanjin store is better in 2023, and focus on the profit elasticity of Jinzi food and negotiation food in 2024. Chain: come out of the trough and wait for recovery. Chain companies are gradually coming out of the trough in 2023, but the overall recovery pace is still slow because of relatively weak terminal demand and "cost-effective" consumption. From a strategic point of view, the focus of work in 2024 is mainly to boost individual stores, giving priority to quality growth, and the pace of opening stores is expected to slow down slightly in 2024. On the profit side, costs have been improved, and promotions affect rates. Taken together, the profits of chain food companies in 2024 may be the first to be repaired before revenue. Quick freeze: short-term disturbance, no change in long-term value. In 2023, the quick-freezing industry is affected by complex external factors and intensified market competition. The pressure on the income side from 2023H2 gradually slows down, and the performance of net interest rate is differentiated. In 2024, the leading income end still shows strong growth resilience, and the advantage channel performance remains in the lead; the profit side with the strengthening of cost management capacity, the product structure is further optimized, and the profit level shows a recovery trend. The income of Qianwei Central Kitchen and Anjing Food landed steadily in 2023, and focused on the change of industry competition and the recovery of terminal demand in 2024. Dairy products: demand recovery is weak and profitability is improving. The demand for dairy products recovered weakly in 2023, in which liquid milk warmed up slightly and milk powder / cheese continued to be under pressure. In terms of cost, milk prices have continued to decline since 2023, leading to the improvement of the profitability of dairy enterprises. In 2023, both Yili shares and Mengniu Dairy raised the level of dividends. After the Spring Festival in 2024, dairy products entered the off-season, small and medium-sized dairy enterprises grabbed share at low prices, and the channel faced the pressure of destocking, which led to a general decline in the income of key dairy enterprises in 24Q1, but the profit margin continued to improve. In 2024, we will focus on demand recovery, market competition and leading dividend levels. Health products: domestic short-term pressure, outstanding performance at sea. At the beginning of 2023, residents' attention to improving immunity increased rapidly, and the leaders took advantage of the opportunity to achieve rapid income growth, but since 23Q3, domestic demand has gradually returned to normalization, and domestic income growth has slowed down quarter by quarter. There is still a lot of room for tapping the potential of overseas health products market. Xianle Health has actively opened up overseas customers and achieved rapid growth in revenue and profits in 2023 and 24Q1. In 2024, focus on the recovery of domestic demand for health products and the performance of overseas orders. Investment advice. Volkswagen cost dividend is expected to continue to be realized, pay attention to the pace of follow-up demand recovery. The core recommends Yili shares and Mengniu Dairy with flexible performance, such as Yanjin Shop, Jinzi Food, negotiation Food, Qianwei Central Kitchen and stable fundamentals, with high dividend attribute. Risk hint. Customer expansion, new product development is not as expected; competition intensifies; food safety risk. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.