Source: Guangfa Futures Research
Yu Peiyun Z00195196
Market guide: nickel rose more than 3% in mid-day today.
Driver 1: overseas interest rate cuts are expected to reigniteCasinocardgamesThe good news of domestic real estate spread frequently, the macro mood was warm, and the plate linkage rose.
Overseas, the CPI and core CPI of the United States increased by 3% in April compared with the same period last year.Casinocardgames.4% and 3Casinocardgames.6%, the slowest growth rate in three years, US retail sales in April and the NAHB real estate index in May weakened, and the pricing of swap contracts showed that traders expected to cut interest rates by more than 80% by September. The dollar index fell, and precious metals and non-ferrous stocks rose. On the domestic side, new policies have been introduced in Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and other places, which are expected to pick up. In addition, there are many local geo-conflicts, so we need to consider the impact of inflation expectations on commodities and the incremental demand for industrial metals caused by strategic materials. Leader "Dr. Copper" made a strong breakthrough, COMEX copper squeeze event fermented, the varieties in the non-ferrous plate were boosted by linkage.
Driver 2: Ferro-nickel, intermediate products and nickel sulfate are tightly balanced, the approval process of Indonesian nickel ore is slow, and mineral prices push up the cost of nickel products.
Fundamentally, the Indonesian nickel mine accounts for more than half of the world, the RKAB approval process of the Indonesian nickel mine is slow, the source approval of some factories is still approved, and the domestic trade price of the nickel mine is strong and stable. In the Philippines, despite the end of the rainy season in the main mining area and the increase in the number of nickel ships arriving at the port, the sea freight rate is high and the quotation for high-grade nickel ore is still rising.
Subdivision line point of view: (1) "refined nickel-alloy / electroplating" line, both supply and demand increase, downstream bargain procurement, high prices do not adopt, Indonesia integration cost to the lower reference in the vicinity of 120000, should not be too low to see the bottom of resource goods prices. The marginal concern is the progress of new production capacity. LME nickel investment fund positions turned net long. (2) for the "MHP- Nickel Sulfate-Ternary Battery" line, some traders released the MHP arriving in Hong Kong in July, and the coefficient is looser than before.CasinocardgamesThe three-yuan schedule declined in May, the current price rose with the nickel series products, and the price of nickel sulfate may stabilize in the later period. (3) the "Ni-Fe-stainless steel" line, the nickel mine rose, the Ni-Fe market was bullish, and the spot atmosphere improved. "the domestic government pushed all additional treasury bonds projects to start construction before the end of June" to improve demand expectations, but inventories and warehouse receipts remained high. Steel price range fluctuated, steel mill profits repaired, and production resumed in May.
To sum up, nickel ore resources are temporarily tight, nickel iron, nickel intermediates and nickel sulfate all maintain a tight balance, only pure nickel trend accumulation. There is a story about raw materials and demand, and rising costs cause the shock center of gravity to shift upward.
Driver 3: the situation in New Kha and the news of the Indonesian volcano disturb and boost the mood, but the real impact is limited for the time being.
On the news, (1) Prime Minister Attar announced a curfew and a ban on TikTok after the worst riots in more than 30 years. Xinka Nickel Mine accounts for about 6% of the global output, and mainly exports 1.3-1.8% grade nickel ore and water-quenched nickel. The operating rate of wet project is low, and the actual impact is limited at present. (2) the warning level of Ibu volcano in Indonesia has been raised to the highest level, which is located on Hama Hera Island, Maluku Province, Indonesia. The distribution of nickel deposits in Indonesia is relatively concentrated, mainly in Sulawesi Island and nearby islands, commonly known as Big K Island and Xiao K Island, the former accounts for 70-80% of Indonesia's nickel resources, while the latter about 20-30%. According to SMM, the emergency has no impact on the normal production of the current mines in Xiao K Island, and the follow-up may have a certain impact on aircraft transportation.
Outlook for the future:
Generally speaking, the mood of the non-ferrous plate is warm and the nickel mine is tight to support the disk shock center of gravity to move upward, the impact of the situation in Xinka and the volcanic eruption in Indonesia is temporarily limited, and the trend accumulation pattern of pure nickel still suppresses the height. Shanghai nickel market first pay attention to the resistance at the 150000 mark, if an effective breakthrough is formed, it will continue to be bullish. The main focus of the future is still on the market macro-logic and the Indonesian nickel mine approval process.
